Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.006889 0.007767 0.008716 0.009817 0.011062 0.012424 0.014030
2025-12-28 0.005643 0.006883 0.008334 0.010157 0.012390 0.015039 0.018426
2026-01-04 0.004888 0.006297 0.008036 0.010346 0.013338 0.017092 0.022175
2026-01-11 0.004381 0.005900 0.007861 0.010585 0.014280 0.019136 0.026026
2026-01-18 0.003881 0.005429 0.007508 0.010509 0.014747 0.020540 0.029105
2026-01-25 0.003501 0.005068 0.007245 0.010499 0.015262 0.022010 0.032359
2026-02-01 0.003140 0.004688 0.006906 0.010330 0.015506 0.023083 0.035099
2026-02-08 0.002897 0.004452 0.006746 0.010390 0.016071 0.024644 0.038673
2026-02-15 0.002652 0.004186 0.006510 0.010305 0.016391 0.025840 0.041761
2026-02-22 0.002509 0.004062 0.006475 0.010522 0.017188 0.027821 0.046248
2026-03-01 0.002264 0.003752 0.006121 0.010190 0.017063 0.028306 0.048304
2026-03-08 0.002076 0.003518 0.005867 0.009996 0.017138 0.029108 0.050939
2026-03-15 0.001884 0.003265 0.005565 0.009703 0.017033 0.029616 0.053146
2026-03-22 0.001821 0.003227 0.005622 0.010030 0.018031 0.032102 0.059086
2026-03-29 0.001739 0.003148 0.005601 0.010216 0.018788 0.034215 0.064521
2026-04-05 0.001672 0.003089 0.005609 0.010452 0.019649 0.036578 0.070622
2026-04-12 0.001565 0.002949 0.005457 0.010377 0.019920 0.037864 0.074762
2026-04-19 0.001476 0.002835 0.005345 0.010367 0.020310 0.039398 0.079508
2026-04-26 0.001375 0.002689 0.005160 0.010200 0.020376 0.040306 0.083067
2026-05-03 0.001310 0.002608 0.005094 0.010260 0.020896 0.042140 0.088674
2026-05-10 0.001233 0.002498 0.004962 0.010177 0.021114 0.043380 0.093137
2026-05-17 0.001195 0.002462 0.004976 0.010390 0.021962 0.045974 0.100714
2026-05-24 0.001103 0.002309 0.004739 0.010063 0.021641 0.046095 0.102890